Thursday, April 2, 2009

Toronto FC v. Seattle Sounders FC - Match Preview


It's home opener 3.0 on Saturday at BMO Field as our Reds take on expansion side Seattle Sounders FC. The Sounders have gotten off to a flier, winning their first two matches, both at Qwest Field. These wins were, though, against teams that even we were better than on the road in 2008.

For the first time in our brief history, we're undefeated for our home opener, and we'll still be undefeated on Saturday. We had a bit of luck in our 1-1 draw last weekend to Columbus. We were able to grind out a result though, and at the champions home opener, that is an encouraging sign.

What: Toronto FC v. Seattle Sounders FC
Where: BMO Field (capacity 20,500)
When: Saturday, April 4, 2009 - 4:00 PM EST
TV: CBC, Fox Soccer Channel

Both Carl Robinson and Amado Guevara should be back from international duty, which will give us a major boost. It was pretty evident that these two were missing last Saturday. With Guevara's return, we will see De Rosario moved from the attacking midfielder role he took up in Columbus.

I can see Chad Barrett starting this one on the bench. Seattle has a pretty strong option at left wing in rookie Steve Zakuani. I think we might see Sam Cronin start at right midfield to mark Zakuani. Cronin is a defensive midfielder by nature, so having him on the pitch could free up Guevara, Ricketts, and DeRo in more space when we're attacking.

Goalkeeping is still a question. Stefan Frei has been solid, and Ives Galarcep has rated him as a "once in ten years" goalkeeper. He left the match at Columbus at halftime with an injury and hasn't resumed full training yet. Greg Sutton played pretty well in that second half at Crew Stadium, so I can see him getting the nod.

John Carver has remained tight-lipped about his starting eleven, so once again we're left guessing. Here is how I can see us lining up though...

-----------------Sutton-----------------
Wynne---Harmse---Serioux---Brennan
---------------Robinson----------------
Cronin---------Guevara--------Ricketts
-------De Rosario-----------------------
-----------------------Vitti-------------

As far as Seattle goes, Fredy Montero might be sitting this one out. He didn't travel with the team to Toronto today because of an illness. If he feels better, he'll be flying out on Friday. Losing him would be huge. Before the season started, I said that Montero would be more effective than Ljungberg for the Sounders, and I could very well be saying the same thing in October. Seattle fans can call themselves unlucky if he doesn't play, but this is where your depth players have to step up. It's bound to happen eventually, so this could be a good test of the strenght of their squad.

Freddie Ljungberg is expected to start and play 60 to 70 minutes. The Swede made a 30-minute cameo appearance against Salt Lake last weekend, but was pretty ineffective. I'll let rust take the blame for that.

The Sounders are 2-0-0, so I can't see Sigi Schmid making any unnecessary changes to the sides that won those matches. If Montero cannot play, here is how Seattle might lineup...

---------------Keller----------------
Riley---Hurtado---Marshall---Scott
--------------Alonso----------------
Le Toux------Evans--------Zakuani
-------------Ljungberg--------------
--------------Jaqua-----------------

One player to keep an eye on is Cuban defector Osvaldo Alonso, their holding midfielder. He was fantastic in each of Seattle's first two matches. Another player to watch is Seba Le Toux. The former USL-1 MVP was the Sounders first ever signing, and we could see an interesting battle between him and Ricketts on Saturday.

Another interesting battle will be Carl Robinson and Freddie Ljungberg. Luckily for us, Robbo has been marking midfielder's of Freddie Ljungberg's caliber for years, and at this point in time, we have no idea if Ljungberg will even be a factor (though, I'm pretty sure he will be).

I think that Steve Zakuani's speed will be a nonfactor whenever he tries to run at Marvell Wynne. We saw Wynne shut down Robbie Rogers on numerous occasions last season, and Zakuani isn't at Rogers' level yet.

I caught up with Dave Clark from Sounder at Heart to see what a Seattle fan was thinking about this match. Here is what he had to say...

On whether or not Seattle can continue their home form on the road... Sigi has this team playing an attacking style - not a middle-third possession and slow build-up, or an English style long-ball counter, but if any player but Ty Marshall gets the ball they don't look for an outlet pass, but to move into the attack probing for weaknesses. While early success won't shut down the atmosphere at BMO, if we can do so it will still lead to an exciting match.

On who Seattle needs to shut down to get a result... I expect DeRo to get zone marked like Javier Morales did last week. Alonso and Hurtado will pass him back and forth while Marshall, Scott, and Riley will almost play a flat-three. This kept Morales from being effective in his CAM role, and he is on the short-list of players of DeRo's caliber. If TFC plays with DeRo up top as a withdrawn forward that would just free up Alonso to be a box to box guy and joining the attack more often than if he is forced to track Dwayne.

On the result... 3-1 Sounders. Keller probably won't keep a third clean sheet, but Seattle has too many offensive weapons for the still average Toronto defense.

I'm going to offer a counter-argument to Dave's statement about our defense. Last season, our defense was worse than it is this year, and we could still defend at home against the best sides in MLS. In seven draws, we allowed only four goals, and these draws were against teams with better offenses than Seattle's, such as Houston, New England, or Columbus. In two away matches this season, we've conceded a two 25-yard screamers and a penalty. We're not exactly giving away many clear-cut chances.

I agree with Dave that the score will be 3-1, but that will be in our favour. They do have a lot of attacking options, but we do too. In my eyes, I think it's hard to argue that Le Toux, Ljungberg, and Zakuani are a better three than Ricketts, Guevara, and DeRo at this point in time. I can't forget Montero though, and if he plays he'll be a constant threat wherever he is on the pitch.

Nonetheless, 3-1 for us I think. We'll come home in style. Here is what John Carver has to say about this Saturday's match...


6 comments:

Dave Clark said...

Houston, C-Bus and New England were scoring more than 2 a amtch? Seattle's offense is top five in the league. There isn't any doubt of that.

Ben Van Weelden said...

I think it's a little too early to compared your offense with HOU, CLB, NER.

Anonymous said...

Ricketts versus Le Toux will certainly be entertaining, but I'm skeptical of Ricketts' performance the last two matches. If Ricketts gets subbed for Smith again, I can see Le Toux all over the still slightly hesitant Smith. Guevara and De Rosario will be the match changers here and it's time for Vitti to prove he belongs at Toronto FC.

nickthefarmboy said...

3-1 for seatle i think we should thump them 5-0 just to pput them back in there place we have it in us, lets show them what tfc 3.0 have really become.

Dave Clark said...

Has Kasey Keller ever given up five goals?

Ben Van Weelden said...

Dave, philosophers call that logic a fallacy; the "problem of induction."

With that logic, I might as well ask... Has Toronto ever lost to an expansion team at home?

To answer your question though, here is one occasion where Keller allowed 5 goals: http://football.guardian.co.uk/Observer_Match_Report/0,,-42435,00.html